Anap Foundation has commissioned opinion polls for every Presidential Poll and many Governorship Polls since 2011. The results of the extensive polls conducted, on our behalf by NOI Polls, for the 2019 Presidential elections indicate that respondents who were undecided and/or unwilling to disclose their candidate (the Undecided) at the time of the Poll (end-January) were a whopping 38% of the total voters’ sample.
The Poll findings confirm that President Mohammed Buhari (PMB) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (Atiku) of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are clearly in a two-horse race, as all other Presidential candidates polled embarrassingly insignificant numbers.
The gender split of the Undecided between women and men is 49:29. The geographical split of the Undecided is also uneven – it is highest in the South East (SE), South West (SW) and
Conversely, the North East (NE), North West (NW) and North Central (NC) Zones were at the lower end of the spectrum with Undecided votes of 22%, 25%
Voter apathy is strongest in the SE zone where only 61% of the electorate say that they have given some consideration to the forthcoming elections, followed by SS (73%) and SW (79%). In the NW, NE and NC Zones, the comparable statistics are 87%, 83%
Atiku was lagging behind PMB, but the fact that the Undecided votes are concentrated outside the two zones where PMB is strongest (NE & NW) must give Atiku cause to believe that PMB’s lead might not be unassailable after all
Only 2% of PMB’s backers are doing so because they expect a “Better Economy”.Meanwhile, top 6 reasons for backing Atiku are:- Change in Governance (39%), Better Economy (20%), Better Governance (11%), Preferred Choice (8%), Past Political Records (7%) and Restructuring (5%).
But then both “Continuity” and “Change” have been defined poorly by PMB and Atiku respectively and so they mean different things to different voters. That only 2% of his own supporters expect a Better Economy from PMB is understandable.
Records show that in every single year that PMB has been in office as Head of State (including 1984), he managed to bequeath a reduction in real income per capita on the populace. In effect, his rule or reign through the years has been virtually synonymous with increased poverty levels.
If PMB’s strength was supposed to be plugging leakages from the Federal Government purse and, if his political opponents are supposed to be “looters”, it is hard for some to understand why the national economy often performs better when supposed looters are in charge.
The answer to this puzzle lies in the structure of the Nigerian economy; all 3 tiers of Government combined now account for only 8.54% of National Aggregate Demand as at 30
It is not the plugging of Government sector leakages that really jumpstarts economic activity. Rather, it is the institutionalization of an enabling business environment that stimulates all-round business confidence and new investment activity from the private sector that generates economic growth. Buharinomics (if there is any such coherent thought or body of logic over and above random and irrational/wild actions) is unpopular because it concentrates unduly on 8.54% of the economy (Government sector), whilst neglecting and/or punishing and bashing or brow-beating the much broader 91.46% of the economy (Private Sector).
The biggest negative of Buharinomics is allowing rogue and/or lily-livered and incompetent regulators to harass innocent private sector businesses as they try and shake them down for unwarranted and horrendously large fines by peddling falsehoods against them.
The business community then takes fright and investors flee thereby sending the economy into a tailspin. A recent case in point was the preposterous $8bn allegation against MTN. This is where PMB’s kitchen cabinet have let him down terribly.
An old man relying on an Official Deputy or his Chief of Staff as his right hand men is normal and permissible/expected. Supplanting or subverting these responsible officials via undue deference to a coterie of nepotistic and/or shady influencers who exercise real power without responsibility in the President’s name is PMB’s Achilles Heel.
Discerning Nigerians do not want a “De Facto” President (or two) who never come out of the shadows to subject their archaic ideas to public scrutiny and debate.It could all have been so different for PMB. All he had to do was execute an anti-corruption drive systematically without bias or favour, uphold the rule of law e.g. release the brutalised Shiite leader and stop rogue regulators from harassing the private sector.
Then, many would have ignored the fact that Nigeria, under his watch, now leads the world in extreme poverty rankings and also threatens to become the illiteracy capital of the world, measured in terms number of school age children that are not in school.Curiously, the best descriptions of PMB’s failures come from his family, friends and loyalists.
They are the ones who told us everything that we feared but were unsure about e.g. that he is not in charge, but is controlled by 2 or 3 men, or that his anti-corruption drive is jaundiced because he uses insecticides on his political enemies whilst applying deodorant on his own equally guilty associates and friends. By bastardising the anti-corruption drive, the heads of the security agencies did Buhari a great disservice.
All of a sudden, they would have us forget everything bad that they told us before about Atiku
Meanwhile, at election time, the cabal/kitchen cabinet
PMB’s campaign has been beset with missteps and personal blunders. Even when interviewers chose to inexplicably handle him with kid’s gloves he managed to misunderstand basic questions and/or to commit one gaffe after another on the campaign trail, thereby portraying himself (to Undecided and swing voters) more like a patient in need of help/sympathy, than a political icon/strongman
Atiku has not taken full advantage of PMB’s missteps either. When PDP’s rickety campaign platforms are not collapsing on account of overcrowding, they have often projected a song and dance spectacle that may be fun to watch for sycophants, but fails to convince the huge army of undecided/swing voters that the change Atiku promises will be in the right direction. Projecting an air of “business as usual” is in my humble opinion a needless gamble that needs to be corrected
In the belief that every Saint has a past and every Sinner, a future, Atiku would sound more convincing if he was bold enough to admit that he is a past sinner who is now “born again” – a later day economic reformer that is no longer interested in perpetuating past errors which include a measure of profligacy.
He could then dare anybody without sin to come forward and throw the first stone. Tough statements on what he will no longer tolerate and the
So, PMB is in the lead, but Atiku has momentum because of some recent important endorsements and also on account of the fact that the bulk of the Undecided reside in the four zones where PMB is weakest
They can hide PMB away to ensure no more embarrassing public gaffes and gamble that Atiku (even with a powerful closing campaign) will still not catch and overtake PMB or they can send PMB out on a final push on the campaign trail and risk more gaffes which may create further doubts in the minds of the huge army of undecided voters and tilt them towards Atiku. Wheeling PMB out without allowing him to speak is a terrible option.
A case of dammed if you do and dammed also if you
Full details of all these poll results will shortly be made available on the Anap Foundation website.
- Atedo N A Peterside, is the Founder and President of Anap Foundation.
Anap Foundation is a non-profit organisation that is committed to promoting good governance.