According to oil marketers, the Dangote Refinery currently supplies the vast majority of jet fuel consumed domestically.
According to an Energy Intelligence analysis, jet fuel merchants claim that fuel from the Dangote refinery, which produces 650,000 barrels per day, accounts for the majority of jet fuel used locally less than six months after it began production.
“We’re already buying from Dangote [now] it’s slightly cheaper or at least the same price as imports,” Asharami Synergy’s managing director, Foluso Sobanjo, told Energy Intelligence in an interview this week. The downstream subsidiary of Sahara Group is now Nigeria’s leading airline fuel supplier with a market share of over 20%.
Sobango reckoned that the Dangote jet currently goes for a $2-$3 per metric ton discount to imports.
He pointed out that the 10,000-20,000 ton “coaster” volumes available regularly from the plant are also much more convenient.
“Prices have fallen as the plant has ramped up production — despite large volumes of Mideast and Asian jet fuel passing right by the Nigerian coast on the way to Europe. Sources say Dangote is now operating at more than 300,000 b/d and finally began selling gasoline last month.”
Industry Clarification
The clarification came after Nigerian airline operators approached Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo last week, requesting that they now prefer to buy Dangote’s jet fuel.
The encounter generated local press stories claiming that Keyamo had appointed Dangote as the country’s sole domestic jet fuel supplier.
Sobanjo further clarified that Dangote has begun selling jet fuel locally in naira.
Domestic petrol and diesel sales shifted to the local currency following a government-brokered agreement for Dangote to purchase Nigerian crude in naira.
While the jet is still sold in US dollars per ton for the time being, that could soon change, he said.
“By eliminating the influence of international market fluctuations, we can stabilise the price of jet fuel, which will now be clearer and cheaper as payments will be made in naira,” Keyamo was also quoted as saying.
Shifting Trade Flows
According to Kpler tanker tracking, Dangote has exported 1.1 million tons (35,000 barrels per day) of jet overseas since beginning exports in March.
This includes about 290,000 tons of jet shipped to Europe and 315,000 tons to South America, with the remainder primarily staying in West Africa.
Exports have dipped somewhat since September, in keeping with rising local sales.
Energy Intelligence determined that since April, a further 94,000 tons of Dangote aircraft have been delivered to other Nigerian ports, primarily Lagos. The refinery’s management had previously stated that approximately three-quarters of Dangote jet production would be sold at sea, with the remainder loaded onto road tankers headed inland.
According to Energy Intelligence estimations, Dangote jet currently accounts for at least two-thirds of Nigeria’s jet fuel supply and nearly half of all fuel used in West Africa.
Nigeria’s jet fuel imports have dropped from 13,000 b/d last year, when they accounted for all of the country’s supply, to barely 5,000 b/d so far in 2024. Jet imports into West Africa from outside the area have also decreased, from 34,500 b/d in 2023 to only 17,900 b/d so far this year. Loading schedules show the Dangote jet flying to Benin, Senegal, Togo, the Gambia, and Gabon in the region. Dangote’s owner has previously stated that the factory will someday produce enough jet fuel to feed all of Africa.
Supply Security
Local fuel marketers had warned that Dangote would not necessarily solve the problem of regular stock-outs at the capital’s Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja, which relies on road tankers for 100% of its supply. But “there have been no supply disruptions in Abuja this year,” says Sobanjo.
He attributed the stable supply chain to a lighter rainy season which has kept roads passable.
