Nigeria’s Oil Exports Rose By 60.8% In Q3 Of 2023 – OPEC

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that Nigeria’s oil exports increased by 60.8% in the third quarter of 2023.

“Throughout 3Q23, exports increased by a remarkable 60.8%, while imports increased by 47.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of NGN1,888.92 billion,” according to the Monthly Oil Report for February 2024, released on Tuesday.

It also indicated that exports increased by 115% year on year, reaching a record high of NGN3,867 billion, while imports increased by 34.5% to NGN2,429 billion.

According to the release, “Nigeria boasted a significant trade surplus of 1,438.4 billion naira (NGN), a strong rebound from the NGN7.2 billion deficit recorded in September 2022.”

In late January, the naira currency rate dropped from NGN975/US$ to NGN1,414/US$. As a result, imported inflation may grow, albeit the weaker local currency may provide additional assistance for non-oil exports.”

Nigeria’s current oil output is lower than the country’s 2024 budget target of 1.78 million barrels per day, and the budget is highly reliant on petroleum sales revenues.

Given historical tendencies, there is tremendous uncertainty about the currency’s future path. Furthermore, concerns remain about inflationary pressures in Nigeria, with the inflation rate reaching 28.9% in December, the highest level since 2023.

Meanwhile, growth in the private sector continued, with Nigeria’s January Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 54.5 in January 2024 from 52.7 in December 2023. This improvement in business circumstances is due to an increase in purchasing activity.

“Moreover, business confidence has strengthened compared to the previous month, with firms retaining a favorable forecast for output growth in the coming year. The research also stated that Nigeria’s near-term downside risks could be driven by power grid issues, increased monetary tightening, exchange rate swings, inflation volatility, and global geopolitical uncertainty.

Last month, the average crude production in the 12 OPEC states was 26.34 million barrels per day (bpd), a 350,000 bpd decrease.

“According to secondary sources, total OPEC-12 crude oil output averaged 26.34 mb/d in January 2024, down 350 tb/d from the previous month. The research stated that crude oil output climbed mostly in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, while production declined in Libya, Kuwait, Iraq, and Algeria.

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